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The Laird

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    Northern Ireland OWC

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  1. The Laird

    Other groups

    It is now almost certain that there will be at least 4 teams in path B. Switzerland need only 4 points from Georgia at home and Gibraltar away to qualify which would leave either RoI or Denmark in the play offs. Slovakia and Wales cannot both qualify directly so at least one of them must be in the play offs. Bosnia like ourselves would need outrageous results to finish in the top 2. If this is the case then the only way we cannot be away to Bosnia in the semis is if more than 4 teams are in path B and we are moved to path A. This is looking less likely now, the potential candidates being Czech Rep, the other one of Slovakia/Wales, or Sweden, all of whom would be favourites to qualify directly.
  2. The Laird

    Other groups

    It is highly unlikely that RoI will even be in the draw to be moved to the A path as they are hosts as the rules state if at all possible there is to be only one host per path, either Hungary or Romania from C would be moved to A (maybe even both?). Karma payback for us getting shifted into Ger/Ned group? 😈 Also the NL group winners cannot be moved so Bosnia would not be in the pot either. That scenario leaves us with better odds at 1 from 3, 50/50 if Sweden are one of the 5. Keep believing, our luck is bound to improve soon...........
  3. The Laird

    Other groups

    Yes Hungary and/or Romania in the play offs will really mess things up. UEFA can adjust to keep hosts apart (exactly like they did by putting us in with Germany and Denmark!). So as Schottland are hosts and in path C I suspect that Hungary and Romania will be moved to a different path. Basically the whole thing is incredibly convoluted within the rules never mind adding in that UEFA have another rule which says they can more or less do what they like! Oh, forgot to mention they also have set aside a date for a second finals draw depending on the results of the play offs!
  4. The Laird

    Other groups

    The only way this can happen is that; 1 Only one league A team fails to qualify directly (say Iceland) 2 5 league B teams make the the play offs (say Bosnia, Denmark, Wales, Slovakia and NI) 3 We are the league B team drawn to move into the A path Iceland and ourselves would then be home to the 2 C teams moved to the A path.
  5. The Laird

    Other groups

    As it stands after tonight the play offs for B are Bosnia v NI and Wales v Slovakia. However, if there are more than 4 teams in path B it is not us as bottom seeds who automatically move up to path A. There will be a draw involving the teams who did not win their Nations League group. So in the case of say Bosnia, Denmark, Wales, Slovakia and NI being in the play offs a draw will decide which of Wales, Slovakia and NI move to path A.
  6. The Laird

    Starting line up v Holland

    26th through to 31st March.
  7. The Laird

    Other groups

    If your predictions are correct the play off semis would be Bosnia v NI and Slovakia v RoI. As the groups stand now after gameday 7 it would be Bosnia v someone from C (either Hungary or Romania) and Wales v NI.
  8. The Laird

    Other groups

    Pretty slim as we are the 2 bottom seeds in B so unless we both win away semis and so meet in the final. Also if there are more than 4 teams from league B in the play offs then there is the possibility of a team being moved from the B play off to the A one. Actually that more than 4 teams from B is the only possibility we have of getting a home semi. This scenario would require only one team from A in the play offs (almost certainly Iceland will be there so we would need the Swiss to qualify from the RoI group) and 5 teams from B. One of the B non group winners (hopefully us) would be drawn to move to the A play offs along with 2 of the league C non group winners. In this case Iceland and ourselves would have home semis against the C teams! As RaveDave says it is still early, the picture should be slightly clearer on Tuesday night.
  9. The Laird

    Other groups

    Yes, add the Faroe Islands to that list. However, it is looking very good and I would suggest we can now relax as it will take a number of unlikely results to deny us a play off spot. Even giving up on Bosnia by my calculations it would still need 4 of the following 5 scenarios to rule us out, Kosovo to qualify/Serbia to qualify/Hungary to qualify/Sweden to fail/Austria to fail.
  10. The Laird

    UEFA considering international leagues

    If I recall correctly this was the case before the restructuring, seeding was to be based on last nations league finishing. If that remains we will be in the same pot. The team lists in the UEFA link above appear to match the finishing so look like the pots already?
  11. The Laird

    UEFA considering international leagues

    It would appear that we have been "unrelegated" and will remain in league B. It would further appear that this restructuring has absolutely no link to allowing the Germans to remain in league A. No sir, not one, never even crossed anybody's mind!
  12. The Laird

    Other groups

    This is only the scenario if both ourselves and the Republic and no other host nation are in the same play off route. If we are in the play offs with Denmark instead of RoI then we would be in the Copenhagen/St Petersburg group. Note that it is possible that both ourselves and RoI qualify for the play offs but end up in a different path, in which case we would not be in the Dublin/Bilbao group. Main draw is 30 November. If two hosts are in one play off route UEFA have set aside a date after the play offs (March) for a redraw if necessary to ensure hosts play at home. A complete mess of a tournament for travelling fans. Imagine St Petersburg Saturday, Copenhagen Thursday, back to St Petersburg Monday, qualify in 3rd place then make your way to Bucharest for the last 16.
  13. The Laird

    Other groups

    Excellent work RaveDave, just one addition to make. Hidden in the rules (only really explained properly in the media briefing) is that if there are more teams from one league qualifying for play offs than open slots in their section then a draw takes place. In the scenario above this means one of BUL/ISR/HUN will be drawn to play Scotland. The remaining two are then allocated to the open slots in A giving Switzerland v either ISR/HUN and Iceland v either BUL/ISR.
  14. The Laird

    Euro 2020 Qualifying Draw

    Alternatively if 8 or more from League B qualify we will also get a play off. Either will do.
  15. The Laird

    Euro 2020 Qualifying Draw

    We wont know until the fixtures are published but see below. The one month we cannot have a free date is June. Holland will have no fixtures in June as they are playing Nations League finals.
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