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9 hours ago, RaveDave said:

As Matchday 6 has now been completed the playoffs would be as follows (again we will assume that Germany & Netherlands automatically qualify) :-

League A - Switzerland vs Hungary

League A - Iceland vs Israel

League B - Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland

League B - Austria vs Wales

League C - Scotland vs Bulgaria

League C - Norway vs Serbia

League D - Georgia vs Belarus

League D - North Macedonia vs Kosovo

Brilliant work, cheers.

As we were the better team against Bosnia - Herzegovina in the Nations league & against Wales in Euro 2016 a wee bit of revenge against both would do nicely.

That is potentially one seriously wick like up of teams in Group A

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So we could almost re-run the group with Bosnia and Austria. They would both be expecting to beat us, but I think we'd give them a harder test. I'll tell you what, this new system has me keeping an eye on other groups and I'm hoping certain teams win and others don't.

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34 minutes ago, mervillegawa said:

A trip to Sarajevo to beat Bosnia, followed by a home final win over Wales would be absolutely delightful.

I personally hope that Austria would duff the Taffies thanks. We owe them too. 

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Plenty of talk about playoffs recently, here is my best explanation of Northern Ireland's chances of getting one:

To get a playoff, Northern Ireland must hope that there aren't 5 or more teams who were in Nations Leagues C or D who qualify automatically for the tournament. How likely is that? Well...

As far as I can see, Group B (Ukraine and Portugal), Group D (two of Switzerland, Denmark or ROI), Group H (two of France, Turkey, Iceland) and Group I (Belgium and Russia) are all pretty much guaranteed automatic qualification. Feel free to look those groups up and make your own judgement on that. That is good news for us, as all of those teams are ranked above us in the Nations League, so the more of these teams that qualify, the higher chance that NI get a playoff.

For me, there are five groups where a League C/D side could potentially grab an automatic qualification slot. For Northern Ireland NOT to get a playoff, we would need ALL FIVE of these groups to go against us...

Group A... England are safely through, but Kosovo's win over the Czechs this weekend was bad news. It means Kosovo are just one point behind the Czechs with three matches remaining. Kosovo still have to go to Prague, however. If Kosovo finish second, that would be one League C/D team qualifying automatically, of which we can only afford a maximum of 4.

Group E... Probably the tightest group. It currently looks like this: Croatia 10, Slovakia 9, Hungary 9, Wales 6. Wales have a game in hand on the other three (Azerbaijan away) - For NI, as long as it ISN'T Hungary who qualify, it's good news. Hungary still have to go to Wales and Croatia in their last three games, so hopefully the two that go through will be two of Croatia, Slovakia or Wales.

Group F... Spain safely through as group winners. 2nd is a toss up between Sweden (11), Romania (10) and Norway (9). For NI, we want that to be Sweden. All three teams have still to face Spain in their last four, but Sweden seem to have the easier run-in, with Malta and Faroe Islands being two of their remaining fixtures. Sweden still have to travel to Romania so if they can avoid defeat there, they still look a safe bet to qualify automatically.

Group G... Any of Poland (13), Slovenia (11), Austria (10), Israel (8) or Macedonia (8) could qualify. Northern Ireland would like this to be Austria. It looks as though Poland will be fine and 2nd may be a toss up between Austria and Slovenia. If that's the case, one advantage is that Austria are the only team to have played home and away to Poland. Slovenia vs Austria next month could prove pivotal.

Group J... This is the one group which looks bleak for us. Italy are safely through but Bosnia, the only other team in the group ranked above us, are five points off 2nd with four games remaining. It looks like this: Italy (18), Finland (12), Armenia (9), Bosnia (7). The Bosnians could reign Finland in by beating them at home next month but Finland have already been home and away to the Italians so they're firmly in pole position to qualify.

In short, Northern Ireland are looking good for a playoff. It would take a drastic stroke of luck for all five of those groups to go against us.

P.S. I know permutations aren't for everyone. If you're uninterested, simply scroll on. Please refrain from informing me that if my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle: a) I know and b) It's not an image I want in my head. Thanks.

DISCLAIMER - STOLEN FROM FACEBOOK. 😁

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38 minutes ago, SectionE said:

P.S. I know permutations aren't for everyone. If you're uninterested, simply scroll on. Please refrain from informing me that if my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle: a) I know and b) It's not an image I want in my head. Thanks.

No need to apologise at all, SectionE - very helpful. :thumbsup:

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Come on 'Section E' you must be able to do better than that - I'll be in S E Asia when the play-off matches will be played so I need you to be slightly more specific so I can book my flights back 🙄

Seriously, great work (even though you have stolen it!!) and as you say it will take some really bad luck to stop us getting a play-off game - not sure whether to book flights back for the semi or final :flag:

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The semi finals are March 26-28 with the final March 29-31.  

A home semi final is highly highly unlikely.  

Two options

1)  All 20 qualifiers are higher ranked incl Bosnia who are almost out.  So not going to happen

2) 18 higher ranked countries qualify and exactly 1 League A team left (Iceland only is likely) and exactly 5 League B teams left incl NI and at least one league B group winner (Bosnia will be).  In this scenario a team will be chosen from the non B group winners to move up to A along with 2 League C teams.  You need to be lucky in the draw as the chosen team would have a home semi final.

    

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On 9/10/2019 at 11:10 AM, hughes18 said:

The IFA or AONISC or someone with a decent following needs to post the actual qualification rules on social media. It'll stop 101 arguments.

You're aware of Jason Robb (Tartan Seagull)? He knows what he's talking about, more than the IFA.

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10 hours ago, mervillegawa said:

A trip to Sarajevo to beat Bosnia, followed by a home final win over Wales would be absolutely delightful.

Or just as sweet, if this is all going to plan would be if we bate Bosnia-Herzegovina away and then have to bate Austria in Vienna in the (fake word used due to UEFA) "final" of the (also fake) Nations League B Group. In essence we'd qualify and the brace from our group don't!! This would make a total farce of the stupid "Europa League", "Nations League", "League of Nations" excremental cow product we've listened to for the last year double. Imagine that. Some of us (me included) would even neck a pint of Buckfast on YouTube wearing a Linfield tap if that happens!

But yeah I'd take Wales too and get Keef Gillespie to pour a pint over Ryan Gigg's head live on Sky after Iain DOwie bullets a last minute winner disguised as Bailey Peacock Farrell!

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3 hours ago, Jonny said:

You're aware of Jason Robb (Tartan Seagull)? He knows what he's talking about, more than the IFA.

I am aware of him and several others who know the rules, but they don't have tens of thousands of social media followers sadly.

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11 hours ago, the_hawk said:

This site...  http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/09/2020-uefa-euro-qualification-10000.html?m=1

After running 10,000 simulations is predicting a play off line up of Us v Bosnia-hertz & ROI v Wales.

A play off final between us & ROI for the Euros would be unbearable!

 

With the winners playing two games in Dublin in the finals.  

There would only be three days of build up as well not to mind the nightmare of ticket distribution.  Although if the possibility arises out of the draw there will no doubt be lots of column inches devoted to a possible game.  

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45 minutes ago, gspain said:

 

With the winners playing two games in Dublin in the finals.  

There would only be three days of build up as well not to mind the nightmare of ticket distribution.  Although if the possibility arises out of the draw there will no doubt be lots of column inches devoted to a possible game.  

Woah... so if we dump the RoI (I'm being polite because it's you) out of the qualification, we'd get the games in Dublin they'd have been allocated?!

I'm in, where do I sign up!

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