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74thminutewonder

Germany or Holland

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40 minutes ago, richboy said:

This should probably be a new thread, but now that we have our 12 points, how do we finish above Germany or Netherlands?

The way I see it Germany and Netherlands will both get 12 points from these fixtures too, but have a better goal difference from them than us. 

So we either need a better head to head record against one of them OR if we take a point off Germany who beat the Netherlands again and we either draw twice with the Netherlands or win one and lose one then we qualify?!? I think I'm right but possibly not. Unfortunately I also think I'm right in saying that we'll not get any more points.

We need the Germans to beat the Dutch, match or beat the Dutch in our head to head, and assuming we only match the Dutch, hope they drop points elsewhere.

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Essentially the next 4 matches are play offs...throw everything at them, if we take the lead at Windsor against the Germans or Netherlands I think they will be in for a long night with the Windsor roar to deal with 

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If the Germans beat the Dutch again then it'll effectively be a two legged playoff between us and the Netherlands to qualify (assuming the Dutch don't drop any other points). 

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Hopefully the germans hammer the dutch, que the traditional dutch in fighting and implosion. We rock up in Rotterdam steal a point beat them at Windsor. Job done. Simplest.

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6 minutes ago, culchie said:

Hopefully the germans hammer the dutch, que the traditional dutch in fighting and implosion. We rock up in Rotterdam steal a point beat them at Windsor. Job done. Simplest.

Talking to some Germans in our hotel last night who stayed in Belarus for our game after theirs, they'll certainly do all they can to push the Netherlands into 3rd, we can have 2nd they said. I did remind them we are top of the group and planning to stay there 😁

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44 minutes ago, culchie said:

Hopefully the germans hammer the dutch, que the traditional dutch in fighting and implosion. We rock up in Rotterdam steal a point beat them at Windsor. Job done. Simplest.

Away goals count in the event of head-to-head goal difference being level, so (for example) a 1-0 win at home and 2-1 defeat  away, or 1-1 away and 0-0 at home would be enough to see us through (if Germany beat the Netherlands).

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I'm sure this has been covered 100 times but if we do end of coming 3rd in this group is there still some scenarios that'll mean we can qualify for the Euros? 

We'll have a decent points total.

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Doesn't matter to the Nations league rankings if we finish third fourth or fifth. We're still ranked 24th and need most of the teams above us to qualify through the groups, which they are doing ATM 👍.

Btw in the current standings for Euro 2020 seedings we are sitting second behind Belgium!!!

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I take it if Germany beats Holland, all we need is Hollant to drop 2 points (ideally agains us) and we take second place?

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If Holland drop 3 more points in Germany  and 2 in Belfast they would have 16 maximum. The home draw would give us 13, we'd need 3 more to match that.

 

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17 minutes ago, Jack Russell said:

I take it if Germany beats Holland, all we need is Hollant to drop 2 points (ideally agains us) and we take second place?

If they beat us in one game, they gain 3 points on us, so in a scenario where they’ve also dropped 2 points elsewhere, we’d still need to beat them once.

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Germany beating the Dutch is absolutely crucial.

If Germany beat the Dutch then no matter what happens in Rotterdam it will come down to November.  

A win in Belfast over the Dutch means a point in Frankfurt will do.  In this scenario Joachim Low's teamtalk "Let's do this for the Dutch" may not quite reach the heights of Henry V at Agincourt or the Gettysburg address.    😉

Again a Germany win over the Dutch means a 1-1 draw in Rotterdam and a scoreless draw in Belfast will do also.  

All logic still says the Germans and the Dutch will qualify in the end however the Dutch will certainly have to sweat.

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We looked good last night. The Dutch being the Dutch should be a bit confident, but they will be nervous about their trip to Belfast to some degree. Words I thought I would never type.

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I still haven't worked out the Nations League yet, but am I right in saying that if the Dutch don't qualify, they will go into a playoff automatically on account of having topped their group in the Nations League?

 

If the Germans beat them they then ask why they are fighting us for a playoff spot when they have a guaranteed one due to the Nations League performance. They take their foot off the gas and we profit.

 

You heard it here first (provided my understanding of the Nations League is right).

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